The AI bubble has now become a hot topic in the global tech world. After the surge in popularity of ChatGPT and the influx of massive investments into the artificial intelligence sector, the atmosphere of optimism in the industry has risen sharply. Every company is racing to adopt AI solutions, while startup valuations rise relentlessly, creating the perception that this technology will continue to advance without limits.
However, behind that fanfare, a concern arises that this growth is not entirely supported by real results. Many analysts see patterns resembling the dot-com bubble of 2000, when investments flowed heavily but technology implementations had not yet delivered commensurate economic value. This raises a big question: is the current AI euphoria merely the early phase toward an inevitable major correction?
This concern is growing stronger as various indicators begin to show imbalances, ranging from projects that have not yet turned a profit, valuations deemed excessive, to the dominance of a handful of technology giants that control the market. All of this is triggering a global debate: are we witnessing a bubble that is about to burst, or are we entering a period of natural filtering toward a more mature and realistic AI era?
Euphoria AI and the Unstoppable Surge
A wave of euphoria about AI technology began to be visible since OpenAI launched ChatGPT. In a short period, the market capitalization of global technology companies surged dramatically. Giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia posted a new revenue record, while thousands of AI startups are emerging around the world.
However, behind that surge, a big question arises: is all of this sustainable?
An Investment Boom That Is Out of Balance with the Returns
More than 95% of companies investing in AI have not yet experienced real benefits. Many initiatives are carried out only as image-building efforts or marketing pushes, while the expected operational impact has yet to be seen.
Even the large projects worth US$30 billion have been deemed not to provide a proportional economic impact. Several large companies recruit AI talent on a massive scale, only to subsequently terminate contracts because the results do not meet expectations.
The Dominance of the Seven Tech Giants
The danger signs are becoming more evident as seven major companies—Google, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—now control more than a third of the S&P 500 index.
The market's dependence on them makes systemic risk greater: if any one of them falters, the domino effect could bring down the entire technology sector.
Warning from World Figures
Global figures such as Sam Altman, Joe Tsai (Alibaba), Ray Dalio (Bridgewater), and Thorsten Slok (Apollo Global) have begun warning that the valuations of AI companies are now "unreasonable." They assess that market euphoria has driven stock prices beyond the capacity of the company's fundamentals to generate long-term profits. The world's dependence on the narrative "AI will change everything in a short time" makes many investors lose vigilance regarding the risks that are actually lurking.
Altman even described the current condition as 'close to a bubble' that could burst at any moment if market expectations continue to go unmet. Similar warnings have come from global investment leaders who see the classic signs of a bubble: an unrealistically rapid escalation in valuations, capital inflows that are too aggressive, and tech projects that have yet to deliver real value. According to them, the AI industry is entering a phase in which optimism must be tempered by discipline, caution, and a more rational assessment.
AI Bubble Cycle and Correction Opportunities
This phenomenon reflects the classic pattern of the tech bubble cycle: beginning with the awareness stage, followed by a surge of innovation, rising into mass euphoria, and then moving toward the profit-taking phase until the potential for panic emerges. All of those signs are now becoming clearly visible in the AI market, indicating that this industry is entering a critical phase between excessive optimism and the reality that demands proof.
Stages of Bubble AI Version 2025
- Pergeseran: Munculnya ChatGPT mengubah cara dunia memandang AI.
- Boom: Microsoft is investing heavily; Google is rushing to launch Bard.
- Euforia: Proyek superkomputer “Stargate” senilai US$100 miliar menjadi simbol ambisi global.
- Profit-taking: Investors begin to reassess valuations and withdraw some capital.
- Panik: Potensi koreksi besar bisa terjadi jika ekspektasi pasar terus tak tercapai.
Not all signals are bad.
Nevertheless, AI will not disappear from the global stage of innovation. Even in the midst of concerns about the tech bubble, several big players have proven able to generate real profits from the adoption of AI.
Nvidia, for example, rakes in billions of dollars in profits thanks to its dominance in the market for generative computing chips. Microsoft has also managed to turn its investment in OpenAI into a new growth engine that strengthens its cloud services.
In addition, many companies across various sectors are beginning to adopt AI with more mature strategies. Large investors have not yet left the market; rather, they have become more selective in choosing projects with long-term potential.
AI Bubble or Natural Evolution?
Some observers argue that what happened was not a "bubble that would burst," but rather natural selection. Just as the Internet two decades ago, only companies with strong fundamentals will survive.
In other words, a major correction could actually be the doorway to a healthier and more realistic era of AI.
Lessons for the Business World and the Indonesian Context.
The AI Bubble phenomenon also carries an important message for the business world, including Indonesia. The company needs to be more careful in adopting this technology. It's not about rejecting AI, but ensuring that every step is taken strategically, measured, and aligned with real needs on the ground.
Three Main Recipes for Companies
- Align valuation with actual performance.
Don't judge success by the roadmap or the demo, but by the proven efficiency. - Use AI for the operational kitchen.
Focus on areas such as logistics, demand planning, energy efficiency, and back-office — not only marketing or social media trends. - Don't follow trends blindly.
Start with a small project, measure the results, then develop it based on real data.
Relevance for Indonesia
Many state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and micro, small, and medium enterprises (UMKM) in Indonesia have begun integrating AI into their business strategies, but most still do it in a "trend-following" pattern without a clear needs analysis. In fact, AI's greatest potential actually arises when this technology is directed at solving real-world problems in the field, ranging from high logistics costs, production irregularities, and fraud risk that often undermines operational efficiency.
Indonesia needs to move toward a more strategic and data-driven approach, not just following global hype. By focusing AI on concrete local issues, digital transformation can generate a much larger and more sustainable impact.
With the right approach, Indonesia can become an important player in Asia's AI ecosystem, without getting trapped in illusory hype.
Three Key Lessons from This Phenomenon
- The great potential of technology always takes time to mature.
- The hype cycle always repeats from excessive expectations to realism.
- A simple implementation often has the greatest impact.
Maintaining one's sanity in the midst of AI bubble euphoria.
Finally, the main message of this phenomenon is becoming increasingly clear: AI is not merely a passing trend, but a transformative tool that will only deliver value if operated with sound business logic. Every company needs to ensure that the innovations they drive are truly rooted in operational needs and long-term strategy, not merely following the global hype. Without this discipline, the adoption of technology can actually become a burden that erodes the company's efficiency and focus.
Ultimately, technology is only a set of tools. What determines whether an organization can survive and grow are the people, the mindset of its leaders, and the daily strategic decisions made. Amid the fast-moving euphoria, a company that can maintain sound judgment and focus on real results will be the true winner, not those trapped in the bubble they created themselves.
