Extreme weather disrupts global wheat production in 2025.

Wheat productionThe world is currently facing great pressure due to extreme weather trends sweeping across various parts of the globe. From wheat fields in the U.S. Midwest to the agricultural plains in China and South America, climate anomalies are beginning to erode yields and threaten global supply. Analysts warn that this impact could destabilize global food price stability and weigh on major importing countries.

Impact of Extreme Weather on Global Production

Global changes in weather patterns have become the dominant factor that now affects agricultural productivity in many countries. The El Niño phenomenon, which is still ongoing in early 2025, is causing the planting season to shift and rainfall to be erratic. As a result, many major wheat-producing regions are experiencing disruptions in the crop growth phase.

A report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) states that the average temperature in North America and East Asia has risen by up to two degrees above the historical average. Meanwhile, in South America, excessive rainfall is causing floods in several major agricultural regions such as Argentina and Brazil.

Wheat production in the United States has declined.

The United States, which has long been one of the world's largest wheat exporters, is now facing difficult times. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the harvested land area affected by drought increased by 18 percent compared with last year. In Kansas, known as America's breadbasket, many farmers report partial crop failures due to extreme temperatures and low rainfall.

In addition, forest fires in the western part increase pressure on the agricultural water supply. Experts warn that if this condition continues into the next planting season, the United States could lose up to 10 million tons of its total annual production.

China faces similar challenges.

Meanwhile, in Asia,wheat productionChina is also not immune to the impact of weather changes. The provinces of Henan and Shandong, two of the country's largest wheat-producing regions, experienced severe floods that damaged thousands of hectares of land. The Chinese government has deployed emergency aid and strengthened the irrigation system to reduce losses.

However, some analysts estimate that national production will still decline by about 5 percent. This condition adds pressure on domestic food stocks that have already declined due to domestic demand that continues to rise.

South America Hit by Unpredictable Rainfall

In the southern hemisphere, countries such as Argentina and Brazil face different challenges. The rainy season that arrives late, followed by excessive rainfall, causes an imbalance in plant growth. In Argentina, more than 600,000 hectares of agricultural land have been reported flooded in the last two months.

Meanwhile, Brazil is experiencing a shift in the harvest season that is causing a low-quality wheat yield. This condition forces exporters to adjust shipping contracts and prices in the international market.

Price Fluctuations and the Risk of a Food Crisis

Extreme weather conditions that affectwheat productionThis will soon be reflected in the global market. The price of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) commodity exchange has risen nearly 12 percent since the beginning of October 2025. This increase is triggered by concerns about the decreasing supply from major producing countries.

Analysts warn that the spike in wheat prices could affect global food supply chains, especially for developing countries that rely on imports. Countries in South Asia and North Africa, for example, have begun looking for alternative supplies from other regions such as Australia and Ukraine, even with higher logistics costs.

Impact on Food Inflation

Automatic increases in the price of wheat push food inflation in various countries. In Indonesia, for example, the prices of wheat flour and its processed products have begun to rise by 5–7 percent. The Ministry of Trade notes the existence of pressure from higher import prices.

Meanwhile, in the European region, a number of food companies have begun adjusting the prices of bread and pasta products to anticipate rising raw material costs. This condition shows how sensitive the market is to changes in the global agricultural sector.

The state's effort to anticipate impact.

Some governments are starting to take mitigation measures. The United States is accelerating the development of heat-tolerant wheat varieties, while China is increasing its national strategic reserves. On the other hand, Australia is taking advantage of the momentum by expanding exports because the weather conditions there are relatively stable.

World Trade Organization (WTO) also warns against restrictive export policies such as a ban on wheat exports, which could worsen the global situation.

Long-Term Solutions and Adaptations

Experts say that the main solution for maintainingwheat productionGlobal rests on agricultural innovation and adaptation. Precision agriculture technology, smart irrigation systems, and the use of climate-resilient seeds have become key to facing an increasingly uncertain future.

Agricultural Technology Innovation

In many developed countries, the use of soil sensors and satellite imagery has begun to be applied to optimize the use of water and fertilizers. This technology helps farmers monitor the health of the plants in real time and adjust actions according to field conditions.

In addition, biotechnology companies are also striving to create wheat varieties that are more adaptable to drought and high temperatures. This program has received strong support from international institutions such as the World Bank and the FAO.

International Collaboration

International cooperation has become crucial in facing the threat of a global food crisis. Major producing countries are expected to increase transparency of production and trade data. On the other hand, developing countries require financial and technological support to strengthen domestic food security.

One of the ongoing initiatives is the "Global Grain Stability Initiative" initiated by the European Union and Canada. This program aims to help middle-income countries improve supply chain efficiency and diversify food crops.

Role of Climate Policy

Global climate policy also plays an important role. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes that the agricultural sector must transform to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Efforts such as reforestation, the use of renewable energy on agricultural land, and sustainable land management have become an integral part of this global strategy.

Implications for global food security

The crisis in the wheat sector highlights the fragility of the globally interconnected food system. If there are no swift and coordinated steps, climate change can worsen the disparity between rich and poor countries in access to food.

A report from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) projects that without significant adaptation, global wheat prices could rise by up to 30 percent by 2030. This has the potential to push millions of people into food-insecure groups.

The importance of crop diversification

As a long-term measure, experts are promoting food diversification, including the development of alternative crops such as sorghum and barley that are more resistant to extreme weather. Some countries in Africa and Southeast Asia have begun adopting this policy to reduce dependence on imported wheat.

Economic and Social Perspective

On the economic side, the rise in the price of wheat can also trigger cross-sector inflation, ranging from the food industry to logistics services. Meanwhile, from the social side, food price instability often becomes a trigger for tensions in countries with high levels of poverty.

Therefore, strengthening the food distribution system and social protection has become an important step that must be undertaken in parallel with innovations in the production sector.

crisiswheat productionThe consequences of extreme weather have become a real reflection of the challenges of global climate change. The world is now faced with an urgent need to adapt through innovation, collaboration, and sustainable policies.

If mitigation steps are not carried out promptly, the uncertainty in the agricultural sector can become the next global food crisis trigger. To gain a deeper understanding of how climate dynamics influence the global economy, readers can continue to the related article atInsimen.